Microsimulation

Our powerful microsimulation engine models complex systems at the micro level using innovative mathematics and modern numerical techniques. It enables precise applications across science and industry, from planning country-wide health interventions and financial strategies to election forecasting and video game world simulations.

Disproportionate Covid impact in the UK

Demographic changes in the UK after Brexit

State pension reform in the UK

Cybersecurity: Discovering botnet structure from sinkhole data (collaboration with CERT), see C++ code on GITHUB

Prediction

Analytical forecasting and assessment methods are widely used in planning and decision-making, providing insights into phenomena, opportunities, risks, and uncertainties. This understanding enables a proactive and strategic approach.
Thanks to our experience in science and industry, Averisera offers high-quality analytical prediction services, ranging from standard tools and analyses to cutting-edge research.

Cross-sectional Markov model & Forecasting Tool

Machine learning

Machine learning automates statistical model building, enabling computers to identify complex patterns and associations in data. Its growing popularity spans various applications, though improper use can lead to overfitting and misinterpretation.
Developing models from the ground up requires a deep understanding of underlying principles beyond ready-made solutions. As models grow in complexity, ensuring interpretability and explainability is crucial. Clear insights into their decision-making processes enhance reliability and trust, supporting more informed and accountable applications.

Forecasting mortality trends using deep learning

Fertility trend analysis: interpretability & explainability of NN models